Shenzhen Expressway (600548)： 2Q traffic volume + 4% year-on-year decline; performance maintained rapid growth due to one-time income
Shenzhen Expressway (600548): 2Q traffic volume + 4% year-on-year decline; performance maintained rapid growth due to one-time income
Company dynamicsCompany statusShenzhen Expressway’s main consolidating sections in June (Meiguan, Jihedong, Jihexi, Shuiguan, Wuhuang, Qinglian, Changsha Ring Road) The traffic flow growth rate reached 5% (the same period last year + 7%); June revenue growth rate of 6% in ten years (+ 4% over the same period).
Long-term growth in 2Q traffic / revenue was 4% / 3% (the same period last year + 7% / 5%); 1H traffic flow / revenue had a long-term growth of 5% / 6% (the same period last year + 6% / 3%).
Consolidated road traffic: Meiguan Expressway increased 10% from January to June, 8% faster than the same period last year; Jihe East increased from 5% from January to June, slower than 7% from the same period last year; Jihexi increased from January to June5%, unchanged from the same period last year + 5%; Shuiguan Expressway remained flat from January to June, slower than the same period last year + 5%; Wuhuang Expressway increased 4% from January to June, slower than the same period last year + 8%;High-speed growth of 10% from January to June, faster than the same period last year + 7%.
Commentary We expect 1H net profit to exceed + 19% to 110,000 yuan, corresponding to a 20% growth rate in 2Q, and non-net profit in the 2Q deduction will increase by + 9%.
Highway: Three projects were recovered at the end of last year, affecting nearly 4 trillion tolls in 1H,四川耍耍网 corresponding to 1.
4 million net profit, while reducing 1H interest expenses by about 1.
500 million yuan, excluding the three projects affecting 1H endogenous growth of 6%.
Environmental protection: Derun Environment’s 1H growth is steady.
Guilong Property: 1Q Confirmation 1.
$ 600 million in revenue, assuming $ 200 million in settlements in 1H (ten years + 82%).
Non-recurring items: 2Q18 received Meilinguan supplementary compensation to contribute to profit after tax1.
The transfer of 810 acres of precious dragon land was completed in the second quarter of 19 years. We calculated a contribution of about 200 million US dollars after tax based on the cost of land acquisition and the transfer price.
The release of the ECT offer slightly affected earnings.
Assume that 50% of the current vehicles enjoy a 10% discount and 90% of the vehicles enjoy a 5% discount by the end of the year. We estimate that the reduced net profit will account for 1% of the company’s 2019/20 net profit.
5% / 5%.
As ECT improves the efficiency of traffic, and the discounted trucks will no longer enjoy ECT discounts, our calculations may have super practical impact.
2H concerns: (1) the settlement of the Meilinguan project is progressing smoothly, and we expect to contribute about 300 million profit this year; (2) the total investment for the 40km mileage expansion and expansion is expected to be USD 40 billion, and the company ‘s target highway investment IRR is not less than 8%Or it can enable the external environment experience to cooperate with the government to achieve a more ideal way of construction and operation. We recommend that we focus on the implementation of the expansion and expansion plan at the end of the year.
It is estimated that the EPS forecast for 2019/20 is maintained at 0.
98 yuan (-38% year-on-year, non-deduction + 17% year-on-year) / 1.
$ 05 (+ 7% YoY).
The current A / H can correspond to 9.
7x 2019 P / E, 4.
6% / 5.
2% 2019 dividend yield.
We maintain our Outperform rating and target price of 12.
01 yuan / 10.
HK $ 99, corresponding to 13/12 times 2019 P / E, 26% / 16% space.
Risks: The macroeconomic environment is sluggish, and the Meilinguan project and environmental protection projects have not advanced as expected.